The NAIOP CRE Sentiment Index for Northern Nevada in September 2025 is 56, indicating that respondents expect generally favorable commercial real estate conditions over the next 12 months. The score obtained by NAIOP’s national survey for the same period was also 56, suggesting that local expectations are aligned with national sentiment for the first time in recent survey periods.
Respondents expect occupancy rates to remain stable, with Northern Nevada scoring 54, slightly below the national score of 58 (see Figure 2). Expectations for face rents are neutral locally at 50, compared to a more favorable national outlook of 59. However, effective rent expectations remain less optimistic, with Northern Nevada scoring 44, trailing the national score of 56, indicating continued pressure from concessions and tenant incentives in the local market.
Outlooks for construction costs remain elevated in Northern Nevada. Respondents anticipate continued increases in both construction material costs and construction labor costs, each scoring 65, significantly higher than the national readings of 43 and 38, respectively. These results suggest ongoing concerns regarding development feasibility and cost pressures unique to the regional market.
Expectations for capital availability are moderately favorable but remain below national sentiment (see Figure 3). Available equity in Northern Nevada scored 53, compared to 63 nationally, while available debt scored 52 locally versus 65 nationally. Respondents expect first-year cap rates to remain relatively stable, with Northern Nevada at 54, slightly below the national score of 58.
The outlook for employment in Northern Nevada is slightly less optimistic, with a score of 48, compared to 54 nationally. While still near neutral, this may reflect caution around hiring and broader economic conditions that could influence tenant demand over the next year.
Overall, the Fall 2025 survey indicates a moderately positive outlook for commercial real estate in Northern Nevada, with sentiment in line with national expectations. While elevated construction costs and softer effective rent expectations persist as challenges, stable occupancy, neutral-to-favorable capital conditions, and alignment with national sentiment point to a cautiously optimistic environment for the year ahead.
NAIOP, the Commercial Real Estate Development Association, is an association of developers, owners, investors and professionals of office, industrial, retail and mixed-use real estate. They promote responsible development through advocacy, networking and education to benefit the economic vitality of the communities in which we work and live. Visit http://naiopnnv.com/ for more information.
